Beat the spread
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GAMES PLAYED WITH 5 DICE BETTING
We will use the spreads from OddsShark. If you pick correctly, you get 2 points but if you guess incorrectly you will lose 1 point. The person with the most points at the end of the regular season will be the winner. You may choose 1 week during the season to double your pick. If you are correct you will get 4 points, but if you aren't you will lose 2 points.
You are under no obligation to use your double and won't be penalized for not using it during the season. Each week you will be entered as a "Yes" pick automatically. You only need to contact me if you wish to switch your pick to "No" or if you wish to double your bet. You can send your pick from the front page of this website.
All pushes will be considered "Yes" picks. For example, if your team is favored by 3 and they win by 3, they cover. If your team is the underdog and they lose by 3, they cover. This example is assuming that you picked "Yes".
If you had said "No" in this example, you would have lost. Create a Model Using statistics to create a model is a great way to determine which side you should be on. Using a model that has basic statistics such as points, yards, field goal percentage, etc.
Because sports betting is a market. And it is likely that many people in the market have a model similar to yours, just much more robust. So is using a model a bad idea? You just need to be honest in accepting the shortcomings and things it might not be capturing. Injuries, playing time trends, shifts in coaching strategy, and more can be things that could affect the line but not be incorporated into your model. Excel is a great tool to get started with building models.
For the more technical people, using programs such as Python and R can take it to another level. Good example of a created statistic Using statistics in creative ways or even creating your own statistics could help you have an advantage on the market. The hard part is determining if these statistics have predictive value. Find an Angle An angle is something predictive that can be recognized by noticing patterns.
An example of an angle would be live betting against the Golden State Warriors in the 4th quarter when they had their record breaking season. The theory behind it is that Golden State would be blowing teams out so badly that they would rest their starters in the 4th quarter, while their opponent continues to play their best players.
Another example would be using patterns to predict when NBA teams are likely to rest their superstars. Use Promotions to Your Advantage Sportsbooks are battling for customers and will often times offer promotions via free bets, boosted odds , or rebates that give you an edge. When you add the fact that you are paying for the pick, and then susceptible to the line moving before you can place your bet makes it a tough sell. Do Not Chase Losses Betting systems like doubling your bet size every time you lose is a bad idea.
The quickest way to lose your bankroll is to do things like this. Create a betting process and stick to it. You should do this because it allows you to handle natural variance in betting. You should only be betting a small percentage of your bankroll on each bet. If you are using models or have a statistics based approach where you can calculate your edge, I would recommend following the half Kelly criterion model.
It essentially sizes your bets appropriately given what you think your edge is. All you need to do is enter the bet information, and the analysis is done for you. Using the bet tracker can give you insights into where you are doing well by different dimensions: league, team, bet type, props, etc. Accept and Understand Variance Variance is a natural part of sports betting.
Relevant The more you can accept and understand variance, the better off you will be. It is helpful to track metrics like closing line value that are more predictive of success rather than just profit and loss.
Last week you went Have you figured everything out? Are you the best sports bettors in the world? The answer is probably no. What you are seeing is variance. Understand the swings both ways and try to keep a level head no matter what your recent performance. Avoid these Sometimes sportsbooks will only offer one side of this bet. Avoid these bets at all costs. You are at a huge disadvantage as the sportsbooks can charge almost unlimited juice on these without you knowing. If you find yourself doing this, try to take a step back and think about what you are doing.
Although sports betting is naturally an emotional endeavor, you need to try to limit how much your emotions influence your betting.
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